delax
07-19 08:55 PM
We need a realistic estimate of how many applications are pending with PD in 2004, which really seems like the bottleneck. Another thing to bear in mind is the conversion from EB3->EB2. That is also going to hinder the movement of EB2. There are a lot of people trying to use that route.
Here you go - conversion should not impact this as the number of LC approvals remains the same:
Here are all the LC approvals for India in the last seven years.
Year, Total LC Approved, Total India
2007 85112 24573
2006 79782 22298
2005 6133 1350
2004 43582 No Info
2003 62912 No Info
2002 79784 No Info
2001 77921 No Info
2000 70204 No Info
Lets assume about 25% of pre-PERM LCs are India based on post-PERM data. Thus for fiscal 2004 (Oct 2003 thru Sep 2004) the total LC number is 43,852. Assume 25% of that to be India based on PERM data. That gives about 11,000 India LCs in 2004 alone (All EB categories combined). If you assume an average of 2.5 dependents then the number of visas required for all India EB categories for 2004 is 27,500 (11,000*2.5). The regular quota for EB2 and EB3 combined is only about 9,800. That means 17,700 visas have to come from somewhere. I dont think those many visas are remaining for this year. Be prepared to see FIFO thrown under the bus and approvals with PDs that are all over the place. Please critique this analysis without piling on. Thoughts?
Here you go - conversion should not impact this as the number of LC approvals remains the same:
Here are all the LC approvals for India in the last seven years.
Year, Total LC Approved, Total India
2007 85112 24573
2006 79782 22298
2005 6133 1350
2004 43582 No Info
2003 62912 No Info
2002 79784 No Info
2001 77921 No Info
2000 70204 No Info
Lets assume about 25% of pre-PERM LCs are India based on post-PERM data. Thus for fiscal 2004 (Oct 2003 thru Sep 2004) the total LC number is 43,852. Assume 25% of that to be India based on PERM data. That gives about 11,000 India LCs in 2004 alone (All EB categories combined). If you assume an average of 2.5 dependents then the number of visas required for all India EB categories for 2004 is 27,500 (11,000*2.5). The regular quota for EB2 and EB3 combined is only about 9,800. That means 17,700 visas have to come from somewhere. I dont think those many visas are remaining for this year. Be prepared to see FIFO thrown under the bus and approvals with PDs that are all over the place. Please critique this analysis without piling on. Thoughts?
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Aah_GC
06-06 12:27 PM
After long wait of 4.7 years ( i know it may not sound too long as some of the others), I finally got the card production ordered email yesterday. I was mostly a silent reader on IV but have contributed to IV few times since I started visiting since last year. I wish good luck for everybody waiting out there.
Congratulations and good luck!
Congratulations and good luck!
chanduv23
09-19 11:40 AM
These stories are scary
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_bi_ge/ny_economy_4
By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press Writer Thu Sep 18, 1:03 PM ET
ALBANY, N.Y. - A new projection shows Wall Street's meltdown will likely cost New York state up to 40,000 private sector jobs and $3 billion in tax revenues over the next two years, two state officials said Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT
The revised numbers in the snapshot of worst case estimates was done Wednesday at the highest levels of New York's state government.
The projection is worse than Gov. David Paterson predicted just Tuesday when he said the state could lose some $1 billion in revenue because of upheaval in the financial sector.
Wall Street is a major economic force in New York state, generating one-fifth of the state's revenues each year.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment on the fiscal analysis.
Both hits would be substantial. The total New York state budget including federal funds is about $120 billion, and the state has about 7.25 million private-sector jobs.
State officials used the model of the fiscal damage to New York after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Then, Gov. George Pataki said it was the worst financial hit to New York since the Great Depression 70 years earlier.
The new analysis includes the stock market drop, lost revenue from transactions and projected lost income tax revenue from Wall Street jobs.
Three of the five major U.S. investment banks � Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch � have either gone out of business or been driven into the arms of another bank. The two remaining banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, are under siege.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_bi_ge/ny_economy_4
By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press Writer Thu Sep 18, 1:03 PM ET
ALBANY, N.Y. - A new projection shows Wall Street's meltdown will likely cost New York state up to 40,000 private sector jobs and $3 billion in tax revenues over the next two years, two state officials said Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT
The revised numbers in the snapshot of worst case estimates was done Wednesday at the highest levels of New York's state government.
The projection is worse than Gov. David Paterson predicted just Tuesday when he said the state could lose some $1 billion in revenue because of upheaval in the financial sector.
Wall Street is a major economic force in New York state, generating one-fifth of the state's revenues each year.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment on the fiscal analysis.
Both hits would be substantial. The total New York state budget including federal funds is about $120 billion, and the state has about 7.25 million private-sector jobs.
State officials used the model of the fiscal damage to New York after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Then, Gov. George Pataki said it was the worst financial hit to New York since the Great Depression 70 years earlier.
The new analysis includes the stock market drop, lost revenue from transactions and projected lost income tax revenue from Wall Street jobs.
Three of the five major U.S. investment banks � Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch � have either gone out of business or been driven into the arms of another bank. The two remaining banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, are under siege.
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gc_chahiye
12-21 01:04 AM
Correct me if I am wrong, but you've had unexpired H1B while you were out of work. This is not considered unlawful presence. On top of that, violation of status determination can be done only by the USCIS (IO). If they did not inform you that you violated status, you are good to go.
correct. out of status != unlawful presence.
So being out of status for >180 days does not trigger the 3 year ban. Either USCIS must make the determination that you are out of status, or your original period of authorized stay (I-94 date) must expire.
however being out of status >180 days since your last entry into the US is problematic for your adjustment of status.
correct. out of status != unlawful presence.
So being out of status for >180 days does not trigger the 3 year ban. Either USCIS must make the determination that you are out of status, or your original period of authorized stay (I-94 date) must expire.
however being out of status >180 days since your last entry into the US is problematic for your adjustment of status.
more...
kpchal2
07-18 12:17 PM
hi tapukakababa, the number is for the national customer service center but you mentioned you called the nebraska service center. so did u ask them to transfer to that service center or ???. i would like to talk to those guys and see what they did wityh my application. i guess we already had a painful ride and if it does not yield the right fruit then it really hurts us bad.
mnq1979
08-21 09:46 AM
Well consult a attorney and discuss with him. Your case looks complicated to me, i would suggest you to get a good attorney to sort this mess.
more...
sanju
04-04 03:49 PM
are you aware of the fact that IEEE actually lobbied to get a special quota of H1B for US-educated folks? these folks are foreigners and will definitely be competing against these "racist" ppl. Because of their principled stand, they continue to have clout.
So, only "US-educated folks" are entitled for H1? Is that what you are saying? And only that is a principled stand and rest everything is falsehood?
So, only "US-educated folks" are entitled for H1? Is that what you are saying? And only that is a principled stand and rest everything is falsehood?
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ArkBird
04-06 07:25 PM
Again, What was POE?
Sure I will give the link..
I know its not fake..because I have 3 people on our floor who came from a visit..who saw these kind of things happening right in front of them (and my friends were GCs so I guess they themselves were left alone).
Now coming to point of posting their experiences themselves..especially in a situation where they were not allowed to enter US, I dont think they have any incentive left to post and seek help from fellow IV..once they are out they are out..
Nothing can bring them back unless they file a new petition and go for stamping..
I can imagine how much pain they might be going through, touchwood if I was to be one ofthem, I dont see myself posting my experience for 3 months or so..
its a different case where someone is inside US and they face a problem, yeah..why not they post straight away, but this is a different territory..we can only expect them to post, its not going to happen or may be rare case.
Sure I will give the link..
I know its not fake..because I have 3 people on our floor who came from a visit..who saw these kind of things happening right in front of them (and my friends were GCs so I guess they themselves were left alone).
Now coming to point of posting their experiences themselves..especially in a situation where they were not allowed to enter US, I dont think they have any incentive left to post and seek help from fellow IV..once they are out they are out..
Nothing can bring them back unless they file a new petition and go for stamping..
I can imagine how much pain they might be going through, touchwood if I was to be one ofthem, I dont see myself posting my experience for 3 months or so..
its a different case where someone is inside US and they face a problem, yeah..why not they post straight away, but this is a different territory..we can only expect them to post, its not going to happen or may be rare case.
more...
meera_godse
01-30 02:13 PM
thanks. Found a few reviews on desicrunch. but very few.
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waitingmygc
04-09 06:00 PM
In this visa bulletin there is reasonable movement in family category. So, its not fair to conclude USCIS is not working.
more...
rongha_2000
11-14 05:17 PM
Does this vote gives us an overview of how the PDs might be spread out all over? From this poll, it looks like there are not many applications from Jan 2005 onwards as compared to prior to Jan 2005.
Once that back log is cleared, things wont be as bad for the rest? What do you think?
Once that back log is cleared, things wont be as bad for the rest? What do you think?
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nixstor
10-15 05:13 PM
So if I need a copy of my LCA/I-140, and I file a FOIA request, does that go in a different queue ?
You need your LCA you file FOIA with Department of Labor. NOT USCIS
There are many threads that discuss how to file FOIA to get LCA/Job Description on your permanent labor certification. Please search the forums. Lets NOT digress from the main topic here.
You need your original I-140 application filed on your behalf. File form G-884 with USCIS.
You need your LCA you file FOIA with Department of Labor. NOT USCIS
There are many threads that discuss how to file FOIA to get LCA/Job Description on your permanent labor certification. Please search the forums. Lets NOT digress from the main topic here.
You need your original I-140 application filed on your behalf. File form G-884 with USCIS.
more...
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chmur
09-10 06:53 PM
It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
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wellwisher02
04-23 08:10 PM
All,
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
-------------
Hearty Congrats on turning 'Green'!
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
-------------
Hearty Congrats on turning 'Green'!
more...
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mgmanoj
06-10 07:49 PM
Done - sent to Alabama senators
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sapota
08-15 05:21 PM
wonder what that means for India-China EB2 in the October Bulletin. Will the retrogression be back to Jan 07 dates?:confused:
Doubt that it will go back from here. There will be new visa numbers available in Oct 07. So it should only move forward IMO.
Doubt that it will go back from here. There will be new visa numbers available in Oct 07. So it should only move forward IMO.
more...
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diptam
06-30 10:48 PM
Yes - USPS express mail is next day. But you may not find a open Post office to post the Mail on SUNDAY.
I'm not sure if you drop it in a Express Mail drop box tomorrow if they will pro-actively pick up and deliver by Monday - Probably No.
USPS express mail is a 365 day service so far as "Delivery" is concerned but not from a "Pick up" standpoint probably
If FedEx doen't help try USPS, they also have overnight delivery.
If you handover the document on Sunday evening before 5.00 PM, by Monday noon it will be delivered.
I'm not sure if you drop it in a Express Mail drop box tomorrow if they will pro-actively pick up and deliver by Monday - Probably No.
USPS express mail is a 365 day service so far as "Delivery" is concerned but not from a "Pick up" standpoint probably
If FedEx doen't help try USPS, they also have overnight delivery.
If you handover the document on Sunday evening before 5.00 PM, by Monday noon it will be delivered.
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WillIWin?
07-23 02:24 PM
My lawyer is going to submit the 485 WITHOUT a letter from my current employer. This is going to be a concurrent I-140 and I-485 application (140 and 485 applied together).
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
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chanduv23
11-21 10:31 AM
I was one of the first few folks who moved on, immediately after the yates memo. I am a lot better now and making 2 times what I used to make and also switched to ebb2 as oppossed to eb3 in my old company where situations have never been good.
nixstor
03-18 06:40 PM
Sorry if this is offtopic but can someone explain to me who banned me and why? I didn't write anything offensive or abusive, and I didn't insult anybody. I was just discussing the issues I read in another forum.
If it is my handle, you don't like, well my name is Tawlibann Foggs (it is Celtic name, and quite rare but I like it). My friends call me Taliban jokingly (I know it may not be funny to all of you, and I didn't like it at first, but I can't stop people), so that's why the handle was 'taliban'. I hope that answers your questions, and I mean no harm to anyone.
I thought this forum was open to everybody to express their opinions and discuss relevant issues without insulting others. If you're going to keep banning me, please just let me know that I'm not welcome, and I'll leave. I thought Immigration Voice and its forum was open to all EB immigrants. I was even intending to become a contributing member, but now I'm kind of lost. Am I not supposed to post here? Is there something I missed?
Here is what you provided on the banned id
Phone number 631-922-xxxx. I called the number and a lady answered. I asked "Is there any one living with last name FOGGS?" The answer is NO. I asked are you sure? She goes mad. I then went on to see the city you provided in MD exists, Google maps has no clue about the city.
There are many non-contributing & contributing members and its entirely your wish to do so or not but IV does not need any distractions. Don't bring in the free speech and 1st amendment now.
May be its fun for you and our friends, its not funny here.
If it is my handle, you don't like, well my name is Tawlibann Foggs (it is Celtic name, and quite rare but I like it). My friends call me Taliban jokingly (I know it may not be funny to all of you, and I didn't like it at first, but I can't stop people), so that's why the handle was 'taliban'. I hope that answers your questions, and I mean no harm to anyone.
I thought this forum was open to everybody to express their opinions and discuss relevant issues without insulting others. If you're going to keep banning me, please just let me know that I'm not welcome, and I'll leave. I thought Immigration Voice and its forum was open to all EB immigrants. I was even intending to become a contributing member, but now I'm kind of lost. Am I not supposed to post here? Is there something I missed?
Here is what you provided on the banned id
Phone number 631-922-xxxx. I called the number and a lady answered. I asked "Is there any one living with last name FOGGS?" The answer is NO. I asked are you sure? She goes mad. I then went on to see the city you provided in MD exists, Google maps has no clue about the city.
There are many non-contributing & contributing members and its entirely your wish to do so or not but IV does not need any distractions. Don't bring in the free speech and 1st amendment now.
May be its fun for you and our friends, its not funny here.
Administrator2
06-11 12:22 PM
Everyone is again talking about ifs and buts. Guys why do not you put your hard work on what is more important than what is never ever going to happen. People with a GC, if this Bill passes, they are not going to renew your GC also. How's about that? People with a US citizenship, with previous GC status, they will not renew the USA passport, if this Bill passes. How's about that?
So forget all these bogus bills, and support our main agenda, which is to remove the Backlogs. If you do not have any new news, then sit idle, but please do not spread these bogus out-of-world stories.
Don’t think you understand so let me give it a shot.
We just got off a conference call with our coalition partners. This is a real threat. Everyone, including some of the largest of companies on the planet think this is a real threat. It you are a lawyer or if you represent some law firm, then please go back and get busy with entering items like first and last name in a simple immigration form. This is not your area of expertise.
Experts with this are saying that the language is deliberately kept vague. Some of the terms used in the language of the amendment do not have direct corresponding visa. Since we don’t trust the guys behind this amendment, we think they have deliberately kept the language which is not precise.
Consider this as a kick-off for the election campaign. The real risk is, even if this amendment is defeated, between now and the elections we will all see many similar amendments. At some point Senators will be forced to vote on an issue which is pitched as “American citizens” v/s “foreign workers”. Experts believe that anti immigrants will try to push this amendment in middle of the night in the must pass bills.
Some lawyer, for the purpose of pandering to the client base, is of the opinion that this amendment does not affect EADs. In the grand scheme of things this is plain wrong because he/she will not be asked to leave the country if such an amendment passes in the middle of the night. Just engaging in name calling Senator Grassley or calling the Senator pig face is not going to stop the amendment. Please grow up and get real. Your pandering may get innocent audience to believe that there is no real threat even when everyone with any real sense of expertise is scrambling to oppose this amendment.
Immigration Voice and its coalition partners do not see this amendment in isolation. We are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. And for the lack of clarity from the amendment language, we think that the intent of the amendment sponsors is to see us all out of here.
There is no simple way for the anti-immigrants to throw us all out in a single stroke. They will always engage in systematic elimination of everyone starting from the most vulnerable. The language is vague and it could be interpreted in lot of different ways. It is not wise to look for the most favorable interpretation of the language to find reasons for not doing anything because in the end our interpretation will mean nothing.
Let’s be smart, think for ourselves and act on our own behalf to send simple message requesting the Senate offices to oppose this amendment. What is so complicated about this? And if you don't want to participate, that's fine, but why would you discourage others from sending a simple message to the Senators from their state? Don't you have anything better to do?
So forget all these bogus bills, and support our main agenda, which is to remove the Backlogs. If you do not have any new news, then sit idle, but please do not spread these bogus out-of-world stories.
Don’t think you understand so let me give it a shot.
We just got off a conference call with our coalition partners. This is a real threat. Everyone, including some of the largest of companies on the planet think this is a real threat. It you are a lawyer or if you represent some law firm, then please go back and get busy with entering items like first and last name in a simple immigration form. This is not your area of expertise.
Experts with this are saying that the language is deliberately kept vague. Some of the terms used in the language of the amendment do not have direct corresponding visa. Since we don’t trust the guys behind this amendment, we think they have deliberately kept the language which is not precise.
Consider this as a kick-off for the election campaign. The real risk is, even if this amendment is defeated, between now and the elections we will all see many similar amendments. At some point Senators will be forced to vote on an issue which is pitched as “American citizens” v/s “foreign workers”. Experts believe that anti immigrants will try to push this amendment in middle of the night in the must pass bills.
Some lawyer, for the purpose of pandering to the client base, is of the opinion that this amendment does not affect EADs. In the grand scheme of things this is plain wrong because he/she will not be asked to leave the country if such an amendment passes in the middle of the night. Just engaging in name calling Senator Grassley or calling the Senator pig face is not going to stop the amendment. Please grow up and get real. Your pandering may get innocent audience to believe that there is no real threat even when everyone with any real sense of expertise is scrambling to oppose this amendment.
Immigration Voice and its coalition partners do not see this amendment in isolation. We are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. And for the lack of clarity from the amendment language, we think that the intent of the amendment sponsors is to see us all out of here.
There is no simple way for the anti-immigrants to throw us all out in a single stroke. They will always engage in systematic elimination of everyone starting from the most vulnerable. The language is vague and it could be interpreted in lot of different ways. It is not wise to look for the most favorable interpretation of the language to find reasons for not doing anything because in the end our interpretation will mean nothing.
Let’s be smart, think for ourselves and act on our own behalf to send simple message requesting the Senate offices to oppose this amendment. What is so complicated about this? And if you don't want to participate, that's fine, but why would you discourage others from sending a simple message to the Senators from their state? Don't you have anything better to do?